In 2010 progress (updated) alluded to the Singularity happening by 2045 at the latest.
Our expectationsshape the future therefore we must expect utopia by 2045. Considering
the evidence of technologicalprogress, year 2045 is a valid deadline because it’s
almost certain the Singularity will happen by 2045. Predictions however are tricky
because we can’t be sure what will happen until after the event. The Singularity
could happen earlier than 2045. Focusing attention on 2045 increases the likelihood
of the Singularity happening by 2045. Actions in the present change the future. Increased
awareness regarding the year 2045 guarantees intensified effort in Singularity-related-professions
thereby bringing the date of the Singularity forward. We have the power to create
utopia. Hopefully the Singularity will happen sooner than our 2045 deadline.
In 2008Vernor Vinge predicted a 2030 Singularity-deadline. Vernor’s early 2030-Singularity
could be correct, but to avoid an anticlimax our target is 2045. Via the Singularity
Institute (now renamed MIRI) you can watch the video of Vernor’s predictionhere.
If the Singularity begins in 2030 we should be at peak explosiveness by 2045. The
Singularity won’t be a short-lived explosion. The explosion could easily last 30
years. The explosion begins with immortality, Post-Scarcity, limitlessness, and it
ends with great strangeness, very mind-boggling but accessible by everyone. 2045
could be the beginning, or the midpoint where the explosion is becoming extremely
powerful. 2045 is a brilliant target regarding a time when the Singularity is happening.
Previous overoptimistic predictions regarding future technology motivate us to aim
for a 2045 deadline, a very safe and sure date.
In March 2011 IBM announced plans for sugar-cube-sized computers with low power consumption
by 2025. In August 2013 IBM announced cognitive computing progress. In September
2012 Intel said it expects zero-size computer chips will be possible in 2020. When
powerful sugar-cube or zero-size computers are combined with the latest version of
Robot Adam, Watson, or DNA robots, we will be progressing noticeably quicker. Whatever
aspect of technology you look at, it’s clear size is shrinking while processing power
and memory increases. Our future will be sophisticated, smart, and self-assembling.
Our awarenesswill ensure the Singularity happens no later than 2045. Concentration
of our awareness in the present guarantees the future we desire. 2045 is our deadline
for the Singularity. Overoptimistic forecasts are disappointing therefore our 2045
deadline is a safe date.