2045 Deadline - inspired by Ray Kurzweil and Vernor Vinge.
2045 is an excellent target to aim for.
Progress in the year 2010 (updated) alluded to the Singularity happening by 2045
at the latest.
Our expectations shape the future therefore we must expect utopia by 2045. Predictions
are tricky because we can’t be sure what will happen until after the event, therefore
2045 is our deadline because it’s almost certain the Singularity will happen by 2045.
The Singularity could happen earlier than 2045. Focusing attention on 2045 increases
the likelihood of the Singularity happening by 2045. Actions in the present change
the future. Increased awareness regarding the year 2045 guarantees intensified effort
in Singularity-related-professions thereby bringing the date of the Singularity forward.
We have the power to create utopia. Hopefully the Singularity will happen sooner
than our 2045 deadline.
In 2008 Vernor Vinge predicted a 2030 Singularity-deadline. Vernor’s early 2030-Singularity
could be correct, but to avoid an anticlimax our target is 2045. Via the Singularity
Institute you can watch the video of Vernor’s prediction here. If the Singularity
begins in 2030 we should be at peak explosiveness by 2045. The Singularity won’t
be a short-lived explosion. The explosion could easily last 30 years. The explosion
begins with immortality, Post-Scarcity, limitlessness, and it ends with ineffable
strangeness, really weird beyond human comprehension. 2045 could mark the beginning,
or it could be the midpoint where the explosion is becoming extremely powerful. 2045
is a brilliant target regarding a time when the Singularity is happening. Previous
overoptimistic predictions regarding future technology motivate us to aim for a 2045
deadline, a very safe and sure date.
Vernor Vinge: “I personally would be surprised if it hadn’t happened by 2030.”
In 1965 Irving John Good made premature speculations about the creation of the first
ultra-intelligent machine. Irving John Good expected an “intelligence explosion”
to occur in the 20th century but Good’s forecast was over-optimistic. Over-optimistic
predictions can occur due to the forecaster’s bias therefore our deadline of 2045
avoids any anticlimax. Some forecasters want futuristic progress to happen sooner
instead of later, therefore their desires skew their predictions. Data presented
in Ray Kurzweil’s book “The Singularity is Near” offers strong evidence for the Singularity
happening by 2045 at the latest. Ray’s book was a key inspiration for our 2045 deadline,
but the evidence in Ray’s book is NOT essential for comprehending why 2045 is the
most likely deadline for the Singularity. For example: Tiny 9 nanometer circuits
for advanced microchips were created in 2010.
By looking at the accelerating world around us we can see the quick evolution of
the internet, or we can imagine how smart-phones could evolve into human-level-AI,
or we can look at stem-cell research. Many scientific marvels were already evident
in the year 2010. In December 2010 E. coli bacteria were reprogrammed to create molecular-circuitry
for tiny biological-computers; this research at University of California San Francisco
created bacterial “logic gates” via bio-rewiring the communication between cells.
See also DNA logic gates and yeast biocomputers. It is easy to imagine a technological
utopia occurring by 2045 or earlier. In 2005 Kurzweil gave a marvellous forecast
of super-intelligence occurring in 2045, one billion times more powerful than our
entire human intelligence in 2005. Computing power will inevitably explode. The year
2045 is an excellent utopian target to aim for.
In March 2011 IBM announced plans for sugar-cube-supercomputers with low power consumption
by 2025. In September 2012 Intel said it expects zero-size computer chips to be possible
in 2020. When powerful sugar-cube or zero-size computers are combined with the latest
version of Robot Adam or Watson we will then start progressing noticeably quicker.
Whatever aspect of technology you look at, it is clear size is shrinking while processing
power is increasing. Our future will be sophisticated and smart. Our awareness will
ensure the Singularity happens no later than 2045. Concentration of our awareness
in the present guarantees the future we desire. 2045 is our deadline-target for the
Singularity. Overoptimistic forecasts are disappointing therefore our 2045 deadline
is a safe date.
Ray Kurzweil: “I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive
transformation in human capability—as 2045. The nonbiological intelligence created
in that year will be one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence
today.”
