Progress in the year 2010 (updated) alluded to the Singularity happening by 2045
at the latest.
Our expectations shape the future therefore we must expect utopia by 2045. Predictions
are tricky because we can’t be sure what will happen until after the event, therefore
2045 is our deadline because it’s almost certain the Singularity will happen by 2045.
The Singularity could happen earlier than 2045. Focusing attention on 2045 increases
the likelihood of the Singularity happening by 2045. Actions in the present change
the future. Increased awareness regarding the year 2045 guarantees intensified effort
in Singularity-related-professions thereby bringing the date of the Singularity forward.
We have the power to create utopia. Hopefully the Singularity will happen sooner
than our 2045 deadline.
In 2008 Vernor Vinge predicted a 2030 Singularity-deadline. Vernor’s early 2030-Singularity
could be correct, but to avoid an anticlimax our target is 2045. Via the Singularity
Institute you can watch the video of Vernor’s predictionhere. If the Singularity
begins in 2030 we should be at peak explosiveness by 2045. The Singularity won’t
be a short-lived explosion. The explosion could easily last 30 years. The explosion
begins with immortality, Post-Scarcity, limitlessness, and it ends with ineffable
strangeness, really weird beyond human comprehension. 2045 could mark the beginning,
or it could be the midpoint where the explosion is becoming extremely powerful. 2045
is a brilliant target regarding a time when the Singularity is happening. Previous
overoptimistic predictions regarding future technology motivate us to aim for a 2045
deadline, a very safe and sure date.
In 1965Irving John Good made premature speculations about the creation of the first
ultra-intelligent machine. Irving John Good expected an “intelligence explosion”
to occur in the 20th centurybut Good’s forecast was over-optimistic. Over-optimistic
predictions can occur due to the forecaster’s bias therefore our deadline of 2045
avoids any anticlimax. Some forecasters want futuristic progress to happen sooner
instead of later, therefore their desires skew their predictions. Data presented
in Ray Kurzweil’s book “The Singularity is Near” offers strong evidence for the Singularity
happening by 2045 at the latest. Ray’s book was a key inspiration for our 2045 deadline,
but the evidence in Ray’s book is NOT essential for comprehending why 2045 is the
most likely deadline for the Singularity. For example: Tiny 9 nanometer circuits
for advanced microchips were created in 2010.
In March 2011 IBM announced plans for sugar-cube-supercomputers with low power consumption
by 2025. In September 2012 Intel said it expects zero-size computer chips to be possible
in 2020. When powerful sugar-cube or zero-size computers are combined with the latest
version of Robot Adam or Watson we will then start progressing noticeably quicker.
Whatever aspect of technology you look at, it is clear size is shrinking while processing
power is increasing. Our future will be sophisticated and smart. Our awarenesswill
ensure the Singularity happens no later than 2045. Concentration of our awareness
in the present guarantees the future we desire. 2045 is our deadline-target for the
Singularity. Overoptimistic forecasts are disappointing therefore our 2045 deadline
is a safe date.