2045 Deadline - inspired by Ray Kurzweil and Vernor Vinge.

2045 is an excellent target to aim for.

 

 

In 2010 progress (updated) alluded to the Singularity happening by 2045 at the latest.

 

 

Our expectations shape the future therefore we must expect utopia by 2045. Considering the evidence of technological progress, year 2045 is a valid deadline because it’s almost certain the Singularity will happen by 2045. Predictions however are tricky because we can’t be sure what will happen until after the event. The Singularity could happen earlier than 2045. Focusing attention on 2045 increases the likelihood of the Singularity happening by 2045. Actions in the present change the future. Increased awareness regarding the year 2045 guarantees intensified effort in Singularity-related-professions thereby bringing the date of the Singularity forward. We have the power to create utopia. Hopefully the Singularity will happen sooner than our 2045 deadline.

 

In 2008 Vernor Vinge predicted a 2030 Singularity-deadline. Vernor’s early 2030-Singularity could be correct, but to avoid an anticlimax our target is 2045. Via the Singularity Institute (now renamed MIRI) you can watch the video of Vernor’s prediction here. If the Singularity begins in 2030 we should be at peak explosiveness by 2045. The Singularity won’t be a short-lived explosion. The explosion could easily last 30 years. The explosion begins with immortality, Post-Scarcity, limitlessness, and it ends with great strangeness, very mind-boggling but accessible by everyone. 2045 could be the beginning, or the midpoint where the explosion is becoming extremely powerful. 2045 is a brilliant target regarding a time when the Singularity is happening. Previous overoptimistic predictions regarding future technology motivate us to aim for a 2045 deadline, a very safe and sure date.

 

Vernor Vinge:  “I personally would be surprised if it hadn’t happened by 2030.”  (2008)

 

In 1958 Stanislaw Ulam described the alleged viewpoint of John von Neumann, regarding technology approaching “some essential Singularity” where everything changes. In 1965 Irving Good made premature speculations (archive) about the first ultra-intelligent machine. Irving Good expected an intelligence explosion to occur by the end of the 20th century, but Good’s forecast was over-optimistic. Over-optimistic predictions can occur due to the forecaster’s bias. Our deadline of 2045 avoids any anticlimax. Some forecasters want futuristic progress to see sooner instead of later, therefore their desires skew their predictions. Data presented in Ray Kurzweil’s book “The Singularity is Near” offers strong evidence for the Singularity happening by 2045 at the latest. Ray’s book was a key inspiration for our 2045 deadline, but the evidence in Ray’s book is NOT essential for comprehending why 2045 is the likeliest deadline for the Singularity. Think about printed kidneys, neural dust, or brain-like computing.

 

Looking at the accelerating world around us we can see the quick evolution of the Internet, or we can imagine how smart-phones could evolve into human-level-AI, or we can look at stem-cell research, or we can note how tiny 9 nanometer circuits for advanced microchips were created in 2010. Many scientific marvels were already evident in the year 2010. In December 2010 E. coli bacteria were reprogrammed to create molecular-circuitry for tiny biological-computers (this research at University of California San Francisco created bacterial “logic gates” via bio-rewiring the communication between cells, see also DNA logic gates and yeast biocomputers). It is easy to imagine a technological utopia occurring by 2045 or earlier. In 2005 Kurzweil gave a marvellous forecast of super-intelligence occurring in 2045, one billion times more powerful than our entire human intelligence in 2005. Considering all the evidence, the year 2045 is an excellent utopian target to aim for. Computing power will inevitably explode.

 

In March 2011 IBM announced plans for sugar-cube-sized computers with low power consumption by 2025. In August 2013 IBM announced cognitive computing progress. In September 2012 Intel said it expects zero-size computer chips will be possible in 2020. When powerful sugar-cube or zero-size computers are combined with the latest version of Robot Adam, Watson, or DNA robots, we will be progressing noticeably quicker. Whatever aspect of technology you look at, it’s clear size is shrinking while processing power and memory increases. Our future will be sophisticated, smart, and self-assembling. Our awareness will ensure the Singularity happens no later than 2045. Concentration of our awareness in the present guarantees the future we desire. 2045 is our deadline for the Singularity. Overoptimistic forecasts are disappointing therefore our 2045 deadline is a safe date.

 

Ray Kurzweil: “I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045. The nonbiological intelligence created in that year will be one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today.”  (2005)

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Post-Scarcity information. Hope for despairing people.
UTOPIA IS COMING.

Colossal Progress            Stop Despair            Positive Feedback            CUIPTF            2045 Home

 

 

 

 

 

The Law of Technological Singularity

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Life moves relentlessly towards utopian perfection

 

 

 

Law of Accelerating Returns                 Moore’s Law                 Sociodynamics

Explosion